This article published first for ProTipster Premium users on 20th of May.
Major European leagues are almost over, so it's time to look elsewhere in order to find a value. ProTipster's Premium experts look for value mostly in Scandinavia and South America during this period of the year. What can we expect from the Brazilian Serie A this season? The ProTipster crew provides an answer...
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Introduction to Brazilian Serie A Betting
The Serie A is contested by 20 clubs. There are 38 Matchdays played each season. First six teams qualify for the Copa Libertadores, while another six qualify for the Copa Sudamericana, and four last placed teams are relegated to the Serie B.
The 2019 Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A is the 63rd season of the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A and the 16th edition in a double round-robin since its establishment in 2003. The competition started on April 27th and will end on December 8th.
The most recent champions are Palmeiras who won last title in front of Flamengo and Internacional. Palmeiras and their arch-rivals Corinthians won last four national titles.
Betting on Brazil Campeonato Serie A
Generally speaking, the Serie A is a low scoring league. First two matchdays were a bit exceptional, but now you can notice more and more low scoring results like 0-0 and 1-0. In Matchday 4, five out of ten matches ended with under 1,5 goals. This fact is known to the bookmakers, so usually you will get low odds on unders. Still, there are teams capable of scoring goals, so sometimes you can find excellent odds for overs (if you choose the right match).
In the Brazilian Serie A it is very important to take into account starting elevens as sometimes coaches tend to rotate their squads. Brazilian teams often play a couple of competitions (state championships, national cups, Copa Libertadores, Copa Sudamericana) and sometimes they give priority to one competition over the other. For example, Gremio are probably one of the strongest teams in the country, but they gave priority to the Copa Libertadores and played some league matches with B squad, so it is no surprise that at the moment they have just two points.
One more important characteristic of the Serie A is home field advantage. Brazil is a huge country, so travelling can be exhausting. For example; distance from Fortaleza (Ceara and Fortaleza are from this city) and Porto Alegre (home of Gremio and Internacional) is almost 4500 kilometres, almost like a distance from Moscow to Lisbon. So, it is no surprise that home field can be a significant advantage in this league.
Also, before betting you should always check the place where the match will be played, as some teams from time to time play home games in alternative venues. For example, Vasco da Gama hosted Corinthians in the middle of Amazonian forest in the city of Manaus, 4500 kilometres away from their stadium in Rio de Janeiro.
Generally, most of the players in the Brazilian national football team play abroad, but some may be called up from domestic teams. Keep in mind that the Serie A usually doesn’t have an international break, so some teams could be without their stars. This can be especially true for teams with a lot of foreigners who play for different South American national teams (Raul Caceres, Derlis Gonzalez, Paolo Guerrero, Christian Cueva, Juan Quintero, Giorgian De Arrascaeta, Jonny Mosquera…).
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Favourites of 2019 Brazilian Serie A
After five rounds bookies consider current champions Palmeiras as the main candidate for the title. And we can agree with this, as they already lead the league with 13 points and have an excellent squad. Still, we consider odds around 2,50 to be little too low as Palmeiras will play in the knockout phase of the Copa Libertadores, so probably they won’t be 100% focused on the national championship all the time. Palmeiras were not good in the Sao Paulo championship, but now they are playing some excellent football. Their defence is once again the best in the league and so far they have conceded just one goal. They were especially impressive last weekend when they destroyed local rivals Santos.
Flamengo at 9,00 are considered as the second favourites to lift the trophy. Traditionally the most popular Brazilian team from Rio de Janeiro enter the season with high expectations, but they haven’t been champions since 2009. This year they even failed to win the Rio de Janeiro championship, so they’ve clearly shown some weaknesses. Their chances were considered better prior to the season, but so far they took just one point in three away games, so it is hard to see them to seriously challenge Palmeiras.
Cruzeiro have been excellent in the Minas Gerais championship and in the Copa Libertadores so far, but in the Serie A they already suffered three defeats in five rounds. Until recently, they were considered as third favourites to win the title, but after last defeat to Fluminense odds for them to lift the trophy are around 17.
Santos have been surprisingly good in the first four rounds, but this week they were humiliated 4-0 by Palmeiras. Jorge Sampaoli prefers attractive and attacking football, but his Santos are conceding way too many goals. By Transfermarkt Santos have the third most valuable squad in the league behind Palmeiras and Flamengo, so it is not a surprise they are also considered serious title contenders. After their defeat to Palmeiras we can get 9,00 for them to win the title.
Which teams will get relegated?
Fortaleza, CSA, Goias and Avai were promoted this season from the Serie B and they are generally considered as top candidates to get relegated. Still, we have to mention Vasco da Gama, as this famous Rio de Janeiro club are going through hell at the beginning of the season. They took just two points in first five matches, already sacked Marcos Valadares and replaced him with Vanderlei Luxemburgo, and generally, there are many questions about the possibilities of this team.
Dark Horse | Brazil Campeonato Serie A
Sao Paulo are the potential dark horse of the competition, as they are a team who already won the title in very strong Campeonato Paulista and after five matches have collected 11 points. Since the appointment of Vagner Mancini in February Sao Paulo have been playing superb and could go really far. They have a good combination of experienced (Alexandre Pato, Everton and Tche Tche) and young (Antony, Jonas Toro, Walace, Igor Vinicius) players. Last weekend they drew at home to Bahia and with such slip-ups, they will have a hard time challenging city rivals for the title.
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