First of all before diving deep into betting world, you should understand the odds are showing a probability. When you see almost equal odds with just 2 outcomes, it means there is 50% chance for either of two outcomes. It’s the easiest case for calculating the value bet. If you think there is more than 50% probability for one of the outcomes, it means there is a value. The odds should be lower according to you. When you are able to find value odds and how to define it, you will make a profit from betting.
It’s the only thing you need to know if you want to beat the bookmakers. If you can calculate the odds better than them, you will earn money in the long term.
It’s easy to say but just a small percentage of punters can do it!
Understanding the Odds and Value Betting
Value odds are not just higher odds, although generally the underdogs offer more value. Bookmaker’s odds are changing based on how much money the public put for each outcome. Public opinion usually supports the favorite. If Barcelona plays an average team from La Liga most of punters will want to back Barcelona, just because of they are Barcelona. Probably, they will win, still it means nothing! If you want to make a profit on betting, you can’t bet before considering odds.
Odds against Barcelona win on average 1,24 for first 9 fixtures of La Liga in 2018/2019. From these odds they should win 8 of them for you to make profit. They just won 5 of it! You don’t need to be a math expert for betting, but you just need to do some basic calculations for understanding probabilities.
Earning money from sports betting is not about luck in the long term. Of course, a team that you placed bet on miss a penalty in 89th minute or they have 10 shots on target or they miss many scoring chances and you will lose money. Trust me you will never count the ones which brought you money with some luck. In the long term these are meaningless. You need to stick with what you are trying to do. If you see the stats are supporting what you thought about matches, it means you are on a good path.
You should separate yourself from the public opinion and you need to dig deeper.
How to Find Value Bets?
The first thing to bare in mind is that probably you are not the proud owner of crystal ball, so probably you won’t be able always to guess is going to happen. Nobody has it unfortunately. Punters are speculating what has a better chance of happening in reference to the offered odds. It is not important what you think will happen, because anything is possible, but not all is probable. You should always have in mind you are making probability arguments. This is a crucial difference between professionals and amateurs. In order to do it properly, you can get help from the bullet points for what to look for.
We will give some examples from 2018 / 2019 season with bullet points for you to understand better.
Key info on teams: The information that makes everything different or at least changes things greatly. For this one generally you should be faster than others. We are in internet age, so the information will be eventually found by everyone. Some examples from 2018/2019 season:
BET: Slovakia will win to nil @1,50
Slovakia - Denmark: There is a war between Denmark Football Federation and Football Players Association. The match will be played just to avoid a penalty from UEFA. Denmark will field a team of players from Denmark local leagues. The manager will not be with the team either. Slovakia didn't concede any goal at their home in last 5 official matches.
BET: Lokomotiva not to lose @1,80
Lokomotiva - Rijeka: Last three games between these two teams played in Zagreb were all won by Lokomotiva 1:0. And those Rijeka's teams were far stronger teams than this one. Lokomotiva have played two home games so far, winning both and scoring five without conceding any goals. Lokomotiva not to lose @1.8 is just a must, and Lokomotiva to win @3.8 is something worth trying.
Expert info: Something your experience and prior knowledge allows you to know better than the bookmakers and public opinion.
Best way to do it is sticking your local league and try to be an expert on some teams. So you can analyze them better than public. You can take notes about these teams and what you saw about them. Don’t forget what happened in the last matches are the key thing for affecting odds but if you watch them you will see all probabilities! If you have time, you can improve yourself by watching different leagues. Focusing on minor leagues can give you an advantage. All punters are betting on Premier League, it’s not easy to be expert and finding value bets there.
BET: PSG -2,5 AH @1,83
PSG - Red Star: Although the visitors managed to scrap a point off Napoli, this game is going to be a completely different story. PSG players will want to prove themselves after a crushing defeat to Liverpool and show their own crowd the team is ready to take the next step in the CL. It's going to be a huge victory for the home team, with handicap -2,5 @1.83 being a good value.
Important trends: A striker in-form, a team lacking form or a team playing very offensively or defensively. When you look closer to what happened on matches, you will be able to analyze this statistics more easy as I said at the above
BET: United to win and Pogba to score @3.3.
It seems that in previous games United players were motivated to get Jose Mourinho sacked. There's no team in the world which can switch form for 180 degrees in just few days. The same problem Mourinho had in Chelsea.
However, in last two games United surprised their fans scoring 8 goals (win 5-1 and 3-1). What's more Pogba who was underestimated by Mou starts scoring and assisting like machine (in those 2 games Pogba scored 2 goals and assisted 3 times). His great performance might be decisive against Bournemouth. United will win this one and expect Pogba to shine again.
Changing trends: Most of the teams have a playing style, but after a new manager gets hired everything can be different. Especially we should look closer at teams with bad streaks. Especially for minor leagues it’s happening more and if you follow these news it will be worth it!
BET: Fulham to win to nil @5.00.
Fulham started to improve their defence after Ranieri become the manager and they were very close to 3 points against Wolves. We can praise Fulham’s defence this season just for set pieces. They conceded just 1 goal from set pieces at Craven Cottage.
It’s a really low percentage of the total 19 goals they conceded at their home. Set pieces are the key factor for Huddersfield’s game plan. They scored just 8 goals away from home this season and 6 of these goals scored from set pieces. Aaron Mooy’s absence also affected them, without him Huddersfield looks much weaker. It will be very hard for them to score a goal. They got 6 straight defeats and we think they are really close their 7th one.
Long-term trends: One must be very cautious as teams often change both the squad and the manager. So long term h2h trends generally aren’t useful. In principle, this is a very weak betting argument. It’s probably best for rivalries especially for cards betting.
Use stats but don’t focus on them too much:
If you see something obvious just with match stats, you can be sure that bookmakers already know that. So if you find a match, odds at BTTS YES @1,80 and teams’ last 9 out of 10 matches ended with BTTS YES, you shouldn’t just jump on these odds. Try to always always be sceptic! You should search more. Maybe there is something you are missing. If the statistics would be enough for betting, computers would be able to beat bookies.
All the above examples are shared in Premium Timeline for subscribers by ProTipster team.