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SC Freiburg VS KRC Genk Football Betting Tips & Predictions

UEFA Europa League

Freiburg

5 - 1

HT: 2 - 1 | FT: 5 - 1

Genk

Freiburg vs Genk - Expert Prediction

Editor's Picks

⭐️ Our Tips

Value bet

We expect an open game with Freiburg chasing the tie and Genk scoring regularly, so the combined attacking intent should push the total over 2.5 goals.
👉 There will be more than 2.5 goals in the match @ 1.79

Check 1 more tips in our app!

We head into the Europa League return leg on March 19 with Freiburg needing to overturn a slim away deficit to Genk, who have been scoring freely but conceding too — both sides are desperate for a quarter‑final spot, so expect a tense, high‑stakes clash.

🤜🤛 Head-to-Head games

These sides have met only once recently and it was a tight, low-scoring affair — Genk edged Freiburg 1-0 and the trend points to narrow games rather than shootouts. Recent H2H record: Genk 1 win, Freiburg 0 wins, 0 draws.
👉 H2H trend bet: Genk will win the match @ 5.69

💡 Key H2H stat

Genk took the upper hand in the tie by beating Freiburg 1-0 in the first leg.
👉 H2H stat bet: Genk will win the match @ 5.69

🔎 Last H2H match details

Genk asserted control early and opened the scoring just before the half-hour mark, taking a 1-0 lead. Freiburg had a couple of efforts on target before halftime but couldn’t convert and Genk’s defense held firm. The second half saw Freiburg push more for an equaliser with corners and attacking changes, but their pressure produced no goals. Freiburg had a late shot on target in stoppage time that was saved, so they ultimately failed to capitalise on their late chances. Overall, Genk were more clinical when it mattered and deserved the narrow win.

📊 Last 1 H2H games stats

The recent rivalry has been extremely low-scoring and cagey, with the only match finishing 1-0. BTTS has been a non-starter in these meetings and every recent H2H ended under 1.5 goals.

- Most recent result: Genk 1-0 Freiburg (Genk won).
- 100% of recent H2H matches ended under 1.5 goals.
- BTTS: No in 100% of recent H2H games.

🏠 Home team form: Freiburg (last 10 games)

Freiburg have struggled recently, taking 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats in their last 10 matches, showing a clear declining trend in results. Their home games in particular have been low‑scoring — Freiburg averaged just 0.6 goals per game at home and failed to score in seven of those ten matches. Defensively they’ve been vulnerable too, conceding an average of 1.3 goals at home which has contributed to the run of losses.

👉 Freiburg total goals prediction: Freiburg under 1.5 @2.28

💡 Key Freiburg stat

SC Freiburg are unbeaten in their last 16 home matches.

👉 Freiburg stat bet: Freiburg to win, draw no bet @1.2

🔎 Last Freiburg match details

At the Schwarzwald-Stadion Freiburg hosted Union Berlin and, despite dominating possession and piling on the pressure after half‑time, they lost 0-1 to a stoppage‑time strike. The match saw a cagey first half before Freiburg grew into the game, forcing several saves, corners and late set-piece chances in the second period but failing to convert. The team lined up in a 4-2-3-1 and fielded a near first-choice XI with rotation used mainly from the bench, so this was a full-strength effort that ultimately wasted good opportunities.

📊 Last 10 Freiburg games stats

Across the last 10 home fixtures Freiburg’s matches have been tight and low on goals, with 70% finishing under 2.5 goals and only 20% featuring both teams on the scoresheet. They managed just 6 goals in total at home (0.6 per game) while conceding 13, and recorded only 2 clean sheets in that span.

👥 Lineup update

👥 The lineups are announced and analyzed: Home XI 87% strength · Away XI 92% strength. Here are our tips for the 1st half:

🏆 Team to win the 1st half: Draw @1.97

🎯 Goals total in the 1st half: Over 0.5 @1.47

Reasoning: The XIs are broadly what we expected — the away side is closer to full strength while the home is a bit rotated, but neither side threw out major surprises.

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🧳 Away team form: Genk (last 10 games)

Genk are in good form, winning 7, drawing 0 and losing 3 of their last 10 matches — recent results show more wins than defeats and an overall rising trend. They’ve scored regularly across these fixtures, averaging 1.7 goals per game while keeping four clean sheets. Overall the side look balanced offensively and defensively heading into this away tie.

👉 Genk total goals prediction: Genk under 2.5 @1.04

💡 Key Genk stat

Genk have found the net in each of their last five matches, carrying a consistent scoring run into this fixture.

👉 Genk stat bet: Both teams will score in the match @1.75

🔎 Last Genk match details

Genk beat St. Truidense VV 1-0, taking control early with the only goal just after the 20th minute and then managing the game to hold the slim lead. They operated with a stable backline and midfield, using a near first-choice eleven rather than wholesale rotation, and lined up in a 4-3-3. Genk enjoyed the bulk of the pressure across both halves, created the clearer chances and ultimately deserved the narrow victory, while St. Truidense only threatened late on.

📊 Last 10 Genk games stats

Across the last 10 fixtures Genk scored 17 goals (1.7 per game) and conceded 12 (1.2 per game), producing 4 clean sheets and a 40% shutout rate. Their matches tend to be open — 80% produced more than 1.5 goals and 70% produced more than 2.5 goals — while both-teams-to-score occurred in half of the games, underlining a generally attacking profile with occasional defensive lapses.

🎯 Goals total prediction

BTTS (both teams to score)

We expect both teams to find the net. Genk have been scoring regularly away and the 1-0 first-leg score means Freiburg will be forced to attack at home, while Freiburg have also been conceding in recent matches — a setup that favours goals at both ends.
👉 BTTS prediction: Yes @ 1.75

Goals total over / under

We lean to Over 2.5 goals. Home averages and Genk’s recent away matches point to open games, and with Freiburg needing to overturn a 1-0 deficit this should produce more attacking play and a combined total likely above 2.5.
👉 Goals total prediction: Over 2.5 @ 1.79

❌ Missing players

Freiburg

Freiburg will be without a couple of squad players who haven't contributed goals or assists in the last 10 games, so their absence is more about squad depth and defensive cover than attacking firepower. Rosenfelder's doubtful status could be relevant at the back, while Kyereh remains out long-term.

- Maximilian Rosenfelder (defender) | 0 goals, 0 assists | doubtful ❓ | injured 🩼 | since 4 days
- Daniel-Kofi Kyereh (midfielder) | 0 goals, 0 assists | missing ❌ | injured 🩼 | since 205 days

Genk


👥 Player stats (last 10 games)

Freiburg rely on a small, settled core of starters with regular rotation off the bench — several players started almost every game while others are used mainly as subs. They create a modest number of shots overall but convert at a reasonable rate given the low volume; the attacking output is concentrated in just a few names. Discipline is fairly mixed: Freiburg have a couple of players with multiple yellows and two players with a red each; Daniel‑Kofi Kyereh is injured and Maximilian Rosenfelder is doubtful.

Genk show an even more consistent starting XI with multiple ever‑presents and clear primary attackers; subs are used frequently in attacking roles but the spine of the team remains steady. Goals are concentrated in two prolific scorers while the creative burden is carried mainly by one chief playmaker and a couple of secondary providers; Genk take more shots overall and have bigger volume up front. Genk are slightly more prone to yellows (a clear offender with three bookings) but have no red cards; there are no injured or suspended players listed.

👀 Key players to watch

Freiburg: Matthias Ginter stands out as the team’s top goalscorer and an ever‑present starter — his set‑piece and finishing threat matters in tight games. Igor Matanovic shows signs of influence with shots and an assist, making him a useful link between midfield and attack.

Genk: Daan Heymans is the obvious focal point — top scorer and high shot volume, he’s the main anytime‑goals threat. Bryan Heynen is Genk’s creative engine with the highest assist tally and will be central to unlocking Freiburg.

Freiburg (last 10 games)

- Starter 11 games: Matthias Ginter (10), Noah Atubolu (9), Maximilian Eggestein (9)
- Shots & goals: Matthias Ginter (2 / 5), Igor Matanovic (1 / 12), Yuito Suzuki (1 / 10)
- Assists: Igor Matanovic (1), Derry Lionel Scherhant (1)

Our player markets predictions:
👉 Anytime goalscorer: Daan Heymans
👉 Anytime assist: Bryan Heynen

Why: Heymans is Genk’s prolific finisher with five goals and the highest shot volume — he’s the clearest bet to score anytime. Heynen leads the assist chart and regularly creates chances for Heymans and others, making him the best pick for an assist.

Genk (last 10 games)

- Starter 11 games: Daan Heymans (10), Zakaria El‑Ouadi (10), Matte Smets (10)
- Shots & goals: Daan Heymans (5 / 23), Zakaria El‑Ouadi (5 / 12), Yira Sor (3 / 5)
- Assists: Bryan Heynen (4), Konstantinos Karetsas (3), Junya Ito (2)

🟨🟥 Yellow and red cards

Genk pick up more yellows overall and have a clear frequent offender, while Freiburg’s bookings are more distributed though they have two players who’ve been sent off. Total cards: Freiburg 6 yellow, 2 red; Genk 11 yellow, 0 red. Expect a moderately physical match — Genk’s tendency to accumulate yellows suggests one or two players may be on tight leashes, while Freiburg’s prior red cards indicate the potential for disciplinary flashpoints.

Freiburg (last 10 games)

- Yellow cards: Jan‑Niklas Beste (2), Cyriaque Irie (2), Derry Lionel Scherhant (1)
- Red cards: Maximilian Eggestein (1), Johan Manzambi (1)

Genk (last 10 games)

- Yellow cards: Kayembe (3), Daan Heymans (2), Zakaria El‑Ouadi (2)
- Red cards:

👉 Player to be booked prediction: Kayembe
Why: Kayembe already leads the booking chart with three yellows and is a high‑risk candidate to pick up further cautions in a competitive match; his aggressive style and frequency of bookings make him a logical selection.

🔁 Squad depth & rotation preference (last 10 games)

Both sides have used a fairly conservative number of changes across the last 10 matches, with Freiburg averaging 4.1 substitutions and generally sticking to a settled starting XI while making targeted late adjustments. Genk are marginally more willing to tinker, averaging 4.3 subs per game and bringing on fresh legs or tactical options slightly more often. Expect both coaches to reserve at least one attacking change for late-game impact, with Genk a bit more likely to switch the game with their bench.

⚽ Goals & assists by subs

Freiburg’s substitutes contributed 1 assist and 0 goals in the last 10 games (50% of the team’s assists but 0% of goals), so the bench has added creativity but not finishing. Genk’s bench delivered 3 assists and 3 goals (≈23.1% of assists and ≈16.7% of goals), a noticeably stronger direct impact—there is a clear difference in bench quality in favour of Genk.

🃏 Joker players

Genk have multiple standout impact subs: Yira Sor has 2 goals as a substitute and Robin Mirisola has 1 goal as a substitute, while Jarne Steuckers has produced 2 assists off the bench and Junya Ito 1 assist; these names give Genk several genuine late-game match-changers. Freiburg offer no equivalent super-sub, with Derry Lionel Scherhant supplying a single assist as a sub. Note Freiburg are missing Daniel-Kofi Kyereh (injured) and have Maximilian Rosenfelder doubtful, while Genk have no listed absences.

Joker value bet predictions:
👉 Anytime goalscorer: Yira Sor
Reasoning: Proven to score after coming on (2 goals as a sub), so he’s a realistic late-game goalscorer if introduced.

👉 Anytime assist: Jarne Steuckers
Reasoning: Has delivered 2 assists from the bench and looks likely to create chances when brought on.

Joker players bets are high risk, high reward because they may not play at all, and if they do, they have less time to make impact on the game.

🧑‍⚖️ Referee impact (last 10 games) - Oliver, Michael

Oliver, Michael tends to allow a slightly more open game than the Europa League referee average, being a bit lighter on fouls and bookings while showing a notable willingness to award spot-kicks. Compared with continental peers he gives fewer fouls (20.91 vs 23.49) and far fewer reds (0.05 vs 0.14), but his penalty rate stands out as higher (0.11 vs 0.02), which can directly swing tight matches. Key standout: the elevated penalties per game makes a single late penalty a realistic match-deciding scenario.

💢 Avg. fouls per game

This referee averages about 20.9 fouls per match versus the overall 23.5, so there’s a small but clear tendency to disrupt play less than typical Europa League officials — favoring teams that thrive on transitions and pace. The difference is modest but consistent across the sample (20.91 vs 23.49).
Fouls total prediction: 👉 Total fouls under 23.5

🟨🟥 Avg. yellow and red cards per game

Oliver, Michael issues marginally fewer yellow cards (3.95 vs 4.03) and significantly fewer reds (0.05 vs 0.14) than the average referee, suggesting lower dismissal risk and slightly less emphasis on strict frontline policing. Expect players to be able to press with a bit more freedom and a reduced likelihood of a sending-off altering the game.
Booking points prediction: 👉 Total cards under 4.5

🥅 Avg. penalty shots per game

Penalties are the clear outlier here: at 0.11 per game this referee awards spot-kicks considerably more often than the average 0.02, so teams that attack the box or rely on dribblers have enhanced value from set-piece chances. Given that tendency, the match carries tangible penalty potential.
Penalty value bet: 👉 At least 1 penalty given: YES

🚩 Set-pieces (last 10 games)

Freiburg and Genk both produce a modest number of set-piece opportunities, but Genk are slightly more dangerous from dead-ball situations — they win more offensive free kicks and have actually scored headers recently, while Freiburg have no headed goals in the sample. The key difference is Genk’s greater threat from final‑third free kicks, which makes them more likely to create high-quality set-piece chances (one decisive factor for predicting a tight, low-scoring game).

📐 Avg. corners per game

Both teams average roughly four to five corners per match with no big gap between them, so neither side stands out as an especially heavy crosser or wing-dominant team.
👉 Total corners under 9.5

🎯 Avg. free kicks per game

Freiburg win more free kicks overall than Genk, and while Freiburg’s share of offensive-area free kicks is in line with competition norms, Genk actually collect a higher proportion of their set-pieces in the final third — this makes Genk the bigger threat from free-kick situations. There is a clear difference in where free kicks are won: Genk more often in dangerous areas, Freiburg more often further out.

🧑‍🦱 Goals by head

Genk have produced headed goals in the period analyzed while Freiburg have none, so Genk show a stronger aerial finishing profile and more reliance on set-piece deliveries into the box; this gives Genk an edge on corners and wide free-kicks.

SC Freiburg vs KRC Genk InPlay & Live Tips

Best tips for live matches

Freiburg will win the match

odds -100000 Live
Tip Score: 3.4

There will be more than 4.5 goals in the match

odds -333 Live
Tip Score: 3.3

Tips from In Form Tipsters

Tips from Tipsters with at least x3 tips won streak.

Genk over 0.5

odds -167
Tip Score: 1.2

There will be less than 2.5 goals in the match

odds +113
Tip Score: 0.2

1X2 Tips

Best tips for all "to win" markets

Genk wins or draw

odds +151
Tip Score: 5.8
Good

Freiburg will win the match

odds -167
Tip Score: 5.5
Good

BTTS, Over/Under Tips

Best tips for goal markets

There will be less than 2.5 goals in the match

odds +113
Tip Score: 7.9
Excellent

There will be more than 2.5 goals in the match

odds -119
Tip Score: 5.0
Good

Victor Prediction Tips

Teams to win betting predictions

Freiburg will win the match

odds -167
Tip Score: 5.5
Good

Freiburg will win the match

odds -167
Tip Score: 1.7

Both teams to score tips (BTTS tips)

Best BTTS predictions from our tipsters

Both teams will score in the match

odds -122
Tip Score: 4.8
Good

Double Chance Tips

Free double chance tips and predictions from the best tipsters

Genk wins or draw

odds +151
Tip Score: 5.8
Good

Genk wins or draw

odds +151
Tip Score: 5.0
Good

Best Bets Today Tips

Top 10 tips for today according to our AI model

There will be less than 2.5 goals in the match

odds +113
Tip Score: 7.9
Excellent

Genk wins or draw

odds +151
Tip Score: 5.8
Good

Sure Bet Tips

Tips with at least 80% probability according to bookmakers

There will be more than 1.5 goals in the match

odds -455
Tip Score: 3.4

Freiburg to win, draw no bet

odds -588
Tip Score: 2.6

📋 Lineups

SC Freiburg Freiburg
1 Martinez 3 Silva 4 Pereira 5 Santos 2 Dias 8 Oliveira 6 Fernandes 10 Costa 11 Almeida 9 Rodriguez 7 Lopez 1 Rossi 3 Garcia 4 Torres 5 Moreno 2 Varela 6 Mendez 8 Paqueta 11 Everton 10 Henrique 7 Arrascaeta 9 Pedro
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Genk KRC Genk

SC Freiburg - KRC Genk streaks and trends

Team Trend or streak Prediction Odds
Logo Genk have won 8 of their last 11 matches (all competitions). Away Win +519
Logo Genk have won 4 of their last 5 matches (UEFA Europa League). Away Win +519
Logo The first half ended in a draw in 4 of Freiburg's last 5 games (UEFA Europa League). The first half will be a draw +134
Logo The first half ended in a draw in 12 of Freiburg's last 16 games (all competitions). The first half will be a draw +134
Logo Freiburg have failed to win 6 of their last 7 matches (all competitions). Away Win or Draw +151
Logo Genk have not drawn their last 11 matches (all competitions). Away Win or Lose -400
Logo There have been under 1.5 goals scored in Freiburg's last 5 games (UEFA Europa League). Under 1.5 +274
Logo There have been under 3.5 goals scored in 5 of Genk's last 6 games (all competitions). Under 3.5 -270
Logo There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 7 of Freiburg's last 10 games (all competitions). Under 2.5 +113
Logo There have been under 3.5 goals scored in 13 of Genk's last 17 games (UEFA Europa League). Under 3.5 -270
Logo At most one team scored in 8 of Freiburg's last 10 games (all competitions). BTTS: No -111
Logo At most one team scored Freiburg's last 5 games (UEFA Europa League). BTTS: No -111
Logo Freiburg have scored under 1.5 in 8 of their last 10 matches (all competitions). Home under 1.5 +125
Logo Freiburg have scored under 1.5 in 5 of their last 5 matches (UEFA Europa League). Home under 1.5 +125
Logo Genk have scored under 2.5 in 6 of their last 7 matches (UEFA Europa League). Away under 2.5 -5000
Logo Genk have scored under 1.5 in 5 of their last 6 matches (all competitions). Away under 1.5 -417
Logo Freiburg have finished 4 of their last 5 matches with 1:0 (UEFA Europa League). Correct score: 1:0 +600
Logo Freiburg have not drawn 6 of their last 7 matches (UEFA Europa League). Home Win or Lose -400
Logo Genk have not drawn their last 8 matches (UEFA Europa League). Away Win or Lose -400
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Freiburg vs Genk - Community Prediction

Community's Picks

-> Freiburg will win the match @1.64
-> There will be more than 2.5 goals in the match @1.81
Freiburg will win the match (odd: 1.64) – community backs this with 13 tips suggesting a solid show, so trust the hometown advantage. There will be more than 2.5 goals in the match (odd: 1.81) – several bettors eye a lively scoring game that should light up the scoreboard.

Freiburg - Community Tips Summary

Freiburg is clearly the team to beat here with a massive 13 tips backing their win. The crowd also expects a lively game overall with over 2.5 goals and both teams finding the net, so while Freiburg should come out on top, it won't be a dull affair.

Genk - Community Tips Summary

Genk doesn't get much love from the betting community, with only a couple of tips backing any kind of win or decent showing. Most of the focus is on Freiburg, so Genk's role is seen more as an underdog waiting in the wings rather than a favorite calling for any serious upset.
This article is a summary of 54 tips posted by ProTipster community at 12 hours before the game starts. Current number of tips posted may be different.

Comfortable win expected for Freiburg

Freiburg are the clear favourites here while Genk gets some nods but by far less support. The crowd mostly backs Freiburg for a solid win despite a few Genk pointers and mixed early-game ideas.

What happens in 1st half? Early fireworks or a slow burner?

There are only 2 tips on the first half goal count – one saying more than 1.5 goals and one for less. Not many ideas here so it's hard to tell if the game will light up early or start off slow.

How many goals total will we see? Over two and a half on the cards?

The community tossed in 13 tips across total goals markets plus another 5 for both teams scoring, making the overall goal feel count up to 18. The majority lean towards more than 2.5 goals so expect a game that should at least have a few goals even though some prefer lower totals.

Who will score and how many? Goals split barely sketched out

There are only 6 tips concerning individual team goal totals – 5 regarding Freiburg and just 1 for Genk. With such few hints, it's tough to lock down numbers but the notion is that Freiburg might bag a couple while Genk might struggle to chip in much.

Who will win? Freiburg takes the crown

With 15 tips on the win market (13 for Freiburg to win versus 2 for Genk) plus 4 tips from double chance options, the bulk of the community is eyeing a Freiburg victory. The betting crowd is pretty convinced that Freiburg should come out on top.

By how many goals? Margin hints leaning modest

The handicap markets, including European and Asian lines, bring a total of 9 tips. Though not many in volume, the hints suggest a win with a bit of a cushion, likely a margin of 1 or 2 goals, but the overall conviction isn’t overly strong.

Last matches

League table - UEFA Europa League 25/26

Team P W D L PTS
1 Olympique Lyon 8 7 0 1 21
2 Aston Villa 8 7 0 1 21
3 FC Midtjylland 8 6 1 1 19
4 Real Betis Seville 8 5 2 1 17
5 FC Porto 8 5 2 1 17
6 SC Braga 8 5 2 1 17
7 SC Freiburg 8 5 2 1 17
8 AS Roma 8 5 1 2 16
9 KRC Genk 8 5 1 2 16
10 Bologna FC 8 4 3 1 15
11 VfB Stuttgart 8 5 0 3 15
12 Ferencvarosi Budapest 8 4 3 1 15
13 Nottingham Forest 8 4 2 2 14
14 FC Viktoria Plzen 8 3 5 0 14
15 FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 8 4 2 2 14
16 RC Celta de Vigo 8 4 1 3 13
17 PAOK Thessaloniki 8 3 3 2 12
18 Lille OSC 8 4 0 4 12
19 Fenerbahce Istanbul 8 3 3 2 12
20 Panathinaikos Athens 8 3 3 2 12
21 Celtic Glasgow 8 3 2 3 11
22 PFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad 8 3 1 4 10
23 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 8 3 1 4 10
24 SK Brann 8 2 3 3 9
25 Young Boys Bern 8 3 0 5 9
26 SK Sturm Graz 8 2 1 5 7
27 Fotbal Club FCSB 8 2 1 5 7
28 Go Ahead Eagles 8 2 1 5 7
29 Feyenoord Rotterdam 8 2 0 6 6
30 FC Basel 1893 8 2 0 6 6
31 FC Salzburg 8 2 0 6 6
32 Glasgow Rangers 8 1 1 6 4
33 OGC Nice 8 1 0 7 3
34 FC Utrecht 8 0 1 7 1
35 Malmo FF 8 0 1 7 1
36 Maccabi Tel Aviv FC 8 0 1 7 1