Many pundits are billing Liverpool Vs Manchester City at Anfield as Manchester City’s biggest league test of the season so far. When we take into account Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp’s record against City manager Pep Guardiola we could well see a game that finally lives up to the Super Sunday hype. Or a 0-0 draw. Sorry. It’s football lads, anything could happen. But by looking closely at the stats and team news we can make some predictions that should have a higher chance of occurring. Let’s have a gander then for some football betting tips.
Premier League Betting Tips
Let’s get a big one stat of the way. Manchester City haven’t won a league match at Anfield since 2003 when Nicolas Anelka scored a 90th-minute winner. City were 7.90 to win that day, Liverpool were 1.30. Oh, how times have changed. Anelka is still a sulk though. Klopp has so far played against Guardiola 11 times in league matches, both have 5 wins to their names and a draw makes up the eleventh game in this case. Pep’s teams have scored 17 goals and have conceded 15. Incidentally, Carlo Ancelotti has the best record against Guardiola, 2 wins, zero draws or losses. That’ll excite Arsenal fans more than a half-price pumpkin spice latte.
For all the talk of having a terrible defence Liverpool’s defence is extremely good at Anfield. They’ve only conceded 4 goals at home this season and have scored 21 times. 1.90 goals per game is just as good as Chelsea’s form at Stamford Bridge, however The Reds have drawn 5 times at home, only Brighton & Hove Albion and West Brom have drawn more Premier League games at home.
City on the other hand though are probably one of the best teams we’ve ever seen playing in the Premier League. They can win with panache and glorious style but can also grind out 1-0 wins when they have to and players like David Silva and Kevin de Bruyne aren’t afraid to leave a boot in and get dirty when they need to. They do have weaknesses though. Southampton almost held them to a draw in Manchester. West Ham almost got a draw against them there too had it not been for Diafra Sakho’s late miss. Crystal Palace somehow fluked a draw with them at Selhurst Park, actually they should have won but missed a late penalty. Wolves brought them to a penalty shootout in the Carabao Cup and, the one all the media is choosing to forget; Shakhtar Donetsk pulled off the impossible and beat them in The Champions League.
In their last 10 games City have won 9, drawn , they’ve scored 2.40 goals per game and conceded only 0.60 goals per game. For the same period Liverpool have won 6 and drawn 4, scoring 2.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80. In the Home Vs Away stats City hold the upper hand; Liverpool have won 5 and drawn 5, have scored 2.0 goals per games and conceded 0.40, while City have won 9, drawn 1, scored 2.30 per game and conceded 0.50.
The most popular bet for this match on ProTipster is for Over 3.5 goals and with both teams in fine scoring form you’d pretty much be a saint not to be tempted. It’s currently available at 2.04. It’s terribly short for a bet that needs 4 goals to land, and should probably be priced something more like 2.50 so there’s no value really. Like I say though it’s still hard not to be tempted by it.
I do like the look of Liverpool Over 1.5 goals at 2.06. There’s a little value here in fairness, Liverpool have scored 2 or more goals in 5/10 previous home games so the price should really be 2.0, minus the bookies’ cut, so it should be something between 1.85-1.90 so you’re getting some value here.
Premier League Betting Tips
If you’re a regular listener to our ProTipster Football Podcast you’ll know how much we harp on about waiting for team lineups before committing to bets you’re not sure about. Mohamed Salah, at the time of writing, is still a doubt and may not play. If he doesn’t it’s hard to see Liverpool scoring twice. Philippe Coutinho is obviously gone but as ProTipster Martin pointed on out a recent podcast; Liverpool have actually registered better results when he wasn’t in the team.
There’s also value in the Manchester City price to win, currently 2.23, just based on the single fact that they’ve won 9/10 previous games and also 9/10 previous away games. Based on that their odds should really be a whole lot lower so it certainly presents good value. The last time City were over 2.0 to win away in a league match was against city rivals Manchester United, where they won 1-2, and before that it was against Chelsea in September, where they won 0-3.