The Copa Libertadores group stage comes to a conclusion this week with the final games being played over the next couple of days. There are a couple of intriguing games left and with this in mind I’ve put together my Copa Libertadores tips and analysis.
Copa Libertadores Tips: Penarol v Jorge Wilstermann
Penarol go into the match knowing they’re already eliminated from continental competition, with just one win from five Copa Libertadores games. However, for Bolivian side Jorge Wilstermann this match is very much one of importance; win and get the right result elsewhere and they can win the group; lose and they could be dumped into 3rd place and the Copa Sudamericana.
Penarol’s form is mixed. They’ve won three and lost four of their last ten games, and have only won once in the last five at home. Wilstermann on the surface look better with five wins and just three defeats in their last ten games but they’ve not won in their last five away games, losing four on the spin.
The easy tip in this game would be over 2.5 goals at 1.61. There have been 24 goals in five Penarol Copa Libertadores matches and 20 in five Jorge Wilstermann matches. However, I’m looking for value and I think that’s in the 12X market. Although it’s a dead rubber for Penarol I can’t believe they won’t try to salvage some pride against a team that doesn’t travel well. As such, my Copa Libertadores tips for this game are Penarol to win at a healthy 2.12.
Copa Libertadores Tips: River Plate v Independiente Medellin
River Plate come into the game having dominated the group completely, picking up 13 points from five games and are assured of not only qualification but of being group winners. Third placed Independiente Medellin could snatch second but only if Emelec slip up at home to Melgar.
River are on an awesome run of form. They’re unbeaten in 19 in all competitions going back to February and have won eight of their last ten games. Medellin aren’t doing too badly, having won six of their last ten – and crucially, four of their last five away from home.
For me this is a game about motivation. River know they’ve already won the group – do they put out a strong side to win with a flourish or do they hold back players for their domestic campaign where they lie second to Boca Juniors, four points behind with a game in hand. If they do slack off, Medellin are a much better team away from home and could snatch this one.
The easy bet again is goals – River have kept one clean sheet in seven games and Medellin once in eight so over 2.5 goals at 1.74 looks a cert. If River put out a weak team, 1.81 in the double chance market looks a cert too, but I’m going to go all out and make my Copa Libertadores tips for this game Medellin to win at a massive 4.38.
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