The latest round of matches in the Copa Libertadores group stage take place this week, with several groups still wide open. As always, I’m hunting for value and I’ve taken a look at two of the closer and more intriguing games for my Copa Libertadores tips and analysis.
Copa Libertadores Tips: Sporting Cristal v Independiente Santa Fe
If either of Sporting Cristal or Independiente are to make it out of Group B then they have to win this game. As it stands Colombian side Santa Fe are three points behind Bolivian outfit The Strongest in second, while the Peruvians prop the table up with just two points.
Of course, depending on the result in Bolivia the outcome of this game could be immaterial with respect to further participation in the Copa Libertadores. However, third place does have the consolation of entrance into the Copa Sudamericana so there is a reason to go for the win.
It’s been 13 years since Sporting Cristal last progressed beyond this stage and I can’t see that changing this year. They’ve been unlucky at home; holding a 1-0 lead into the second half before finally capitulating to a Santos equaliser in one game while doing everything bar scoring in a 0-0 draw with The Strongest. They do have a good home record though of late – having won 5 of their last 8 at the Estadio Alberto Gallardo.
While Santa Fe have slightly more hope of progressing their dreadful form isn’t going to help, having won twice in their last eight games. Their away record is poor too – four losses from six away games in their domestic league and 13 from 19 in the Copa Libertadores.
All this points to Sporting Cristal finally getting a win over the line at home. My Copa Libertadores tips for this game are for Sporting Cristal to get that home win at the generous odds of 2.89.
Copa Libertadores Tips: San Lorenzo v Flamengo
Group D is finely poised, with Flamengo going into this game leading the group by two points from San Lorenzo and Atletico Paranaense. The right result and the home side could win the group, defeat and a Universidad Catolica win in Chile and they’re dumped into the Copa Sudamericana.
San Lorenzo come into the game in some form. They’ve won their last five games in all competitions, scoring nine and conceding two. In their last five home games they’ve only lost one. However, the reverse fixture in Brazil was hard for San Lorenzo, with the Argentines going down 4-0.
Flamengo are also unbeaten in five – although they have drawn their last two. They have only won twice on their travels in their last seven games too, and have lost both of their away games in the group.
I’m always loathe to back against home sides in South America and despite San Lorenzo’s dreadful result in Brazil I think they will get revenge at home, and are my Copa Libertadores tips to do so at 2.21.
Copa Libertadores Tips and ProTipster
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