Betting on summer football transfer window can be both joyous but also an unpredictable adventure. There are so many media sources around the world bringing daily news about players, agents and the transfer carousel it’s hard to recognize the real stories from the fake ones. So betting on these markets can be fun and dangerous, but there are some rules to follow. We’ll elaborate on the three most important ones.
Three Key Factors on Transfer Betting
The past matters
First of all, always bear in mind these players, managers, directors and agents are also human beings. They have some past dealings among them and not all get along well. Also, some are really good friends and have connections also outside of football. So football transfers are often not about buying rational (a proper player for the proper need or position) but are also about human relations.
For example, there are clubs with some great dealing history. Tottenham is probably the best example for this; in the past, they have successfully purchased several Ajax players (Eriksen, Verthongen, Alderweireld, Sanchez…) as well as some other players from the Eredivisie. It is clear these two clubs (or their directors) have a great relationship so one can expect Tottenham will have some advantage if they want to buy a player from Ajax. Also, speaking of Tottenham, they had some dealings with Real Madrid (Modric, Bale) and it all went well so it’s not a miracle they are pushing for Eriksen to sign for Real Madrid right now.
But it’s not only about clubs. Some agents (a very important factor in transfer dealings) have good relations with some clubs. The most noticeable example is Jorge Mendes and his relationship with Wolverhampton, as their manager, Nuno Espirito Santo, is the best friend of Mendes.
Locker-room situation is important
The second important thing is knowing the need for a team and a locker-room situation. Some clubs just need a certain position and they are forced to buy a player of a certain profile. But maybe even more important is the locker-room situation where some clubs will be more comfortable buying players of a certain nationality.
For years now (and in the past, it was even more noticeable) two clubs from Mailand were simply divided; Inter was the club for the Argentinians and AC Milan was the club for the Brazilian players. There are a lot of these examples so it’s important to know what is a dominant locker-room influence as no manager wants to create locker-room chaos by purchasing some incompatible groups of players.
Follow the chain reactions
The third very important thing is to follow the chain effect of a certain transfer. For example, selling Paul Pogba to Real Madrid would cause a huge chain effect for Manchester United and the Premier League in general.
First of all, Real Madrid would be left with no transfer budget at all and would have to sell several players (even some great players like Isco) in order to balance their books. Second of all, Manchester United would have their transfer budget boosted and would even more aggressively pursue players like Christian Eriksen or Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. But if the deal doesn’t go through, it becomes very likely Real Madrid will buy Christian Eriksen. So one just needs to follow some live news and have a good feeling for the things to come.
We’re keeping our eye on every potential move. Whenever we find a value for transfer betting, we will write about it. Keep following ProTipster!
We created 3 articles for specific leagues. You can read our transfer betting tips for these leagues.
Best Bookmaker for Transfer Betting
Transfer betting is getting more popular every summer but still, it’s not like a “1X2” market which every bookie offers. So before registering, it’s crucial to check special bet types. We will suggest you a bookmaker at this point.
1xBet has a variety of choices, probably there is no bookmaker, giving more options than 1xbet for transfer betting. This variety helps to find value bets because when there are more players to bet on, there is more chance to move faster than the bookmaker.
So, check the rumours, be sceptical about big headlines and follow three rules we have just explained and maybe (just maybe) you’ll be able to make some money!