One of the biggest betting markets in the upcoming Euro 2021 tournament is for the winner of the golden boot. But how should you pick the winning bet for Euro 2021 Top Scorer? We’ve put together this guide to help you understand not only who the favourites to win are, but why they are favourites.
Euro 2020 Top Goalscorer – What to look for
While it might seem that it is simplest just to go for the best strikers and hope for the best, there are some things you can consider to find the best value bets.
One of the first things to consider is whether to go for an outright winner in this market, or whether to play safe and go for an each-way bet. An each-way bet will win a reduced amount (normally a quarter or a fifth of the odds on offer) if the player backed comes second or third in the golden boot standings. It’s worth checking out how far many places a bookie will pay out on an each-way bet, as a generous offer could make an outsider especially appealing.
While it might seem essential to pick the best players for this kind of bet, there are other factors a bettor should consider.
The first factor is how good the team is. As tournament football has a very limited number of games, it’s imperative to back a player who will play in as many games as possible. If their team around them isn’t that good, then they could go out in the group stage and logic dictates its more likely a player who plays all the way to the final will score more goals than one who plays just three group games.
The second factor is how good the group opposition is. If a player plays for a team which is expected to smash their group, then it’s possible they could score lots of goals in that stage. This would then give them an opportunity to lead the golden boot standings into the later stages of the tournament and be the outright Euro2020 Top scorer.
The third factor we think should be considered is if the player takes penalties. If a player is the designated penalty taker for his team, then the probability of him being the top scorer rises.
With these factors in mind here’s our pick from the current markets.
Euro 2020 Top Goalscorer Favourite – Harry Kane 6.00
There is no denying that Harry Kane is a goal machine for both club and country. This season he has scored 34 goals for Spurs and England, including two in his last two England appearances against Albania and Poland. Kane already has scored 34 goals for England and is the undisputed number one striker for the national side, as well as designated penalty taker.
The only downside to backing Kane is that England are notoriously poor in tournament football. While they have a very talented squad which is expected to go far, there is always the fear that they could choke. That being said, Kane won the Golden Boot at the 2018 World Cup with six goals.
Romelu Lukaku – 8.00
One of the chief reasons Inter have wrenched the Scudetto from Juventus’ grasp this season has been the prowess of Belgian striker Romelu Lukaku. Lukaku has scored 46 goals in 71 games for the Nerazzurri since signing in August 2019 and he has 36 goals this season for club and country.
Like Kane, Lukaku is a penalty taker for a very strong Belgium side. He has scored 59 international goals in 91 appearances for the Red Devils including two this calendar year. Lukaku was joint second place in the World Cup 2018 Golden Boot standings, and with group games against Denmark, Finland and Russia he has a good chance of improving on that.
Memphis Depay – 20.00
Depay is an interesting outsider bet for those looking for value. After having a couple of difficult seasons at Manchester United, a move to Lyon in January 2017 helped to kickstart his career and he now has 23 international goals in 62 games for the Netherlands. Four of those goals have come in his last five games for the Oranje, including a penalty against Poland.
Depay is interesting as the Netherlands have what looks on paper to be a very easy group, with fixtures against Ukraine, Austria and North Macedonia all at home in Amsterdam. If the Dutch national team can play to their ability one would expect them to win all of those games comfortably which could see Depay in the goals.
Ciro Immobile – 20.00
Like Depay, Immobile wasn’t at the 2018 World Cup as Italy had failed to qualify. However, the Azzurri have once again found their quality and they have been putting teams away with regularity in qualifying over the last two years. Immobile has scored two of their goals this year having had a barren 2020 and could have found form at the right time.
At club level, Immobile has been nothing but prolific, with 123 Serie A goals for Lazio in his last five seasons. He’s not been so great at international level but with group games against Turkey, Italy and Switzerland in the comfort of the Stadio Olimpico in Rome, there is an opportunity for him to step up.